Gaming predictions for 2015

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RodimusPrime
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Re: Gaming predictions for 2015

Post by RodimusPrime » Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:07 pm

Matt_B wrote:
RodimusPrime wrote:While I can agree that the cost to developers of piracy are a little overstated ( not every pirated game equals a lost sale for example )

However to go flying off in the complete opposite direction and come up with an argument that piracy helps software sales is a statement that is complete idiocy of the highest order.
It might sound ludicrous but people have done research that suggests that piracy boosts music sales:

https://torrentfreak.com/bittorrent-pir ... ds-120517/

Video games are, obviously, something of a different animal but I wouldn't be shocked if there wasn't something similar going on.

That article has been completely laughrd off the face of the planet.

The argumnent goes like this.

A big album from a big band gets pirated before release and loads of people copy it, smaller bands have far loss copies pirated ( obviously becasue they are not as popular )

Then after release the Big band sells more albums, so hey hoo that must mean piracy helped because they sold more albums than the small band that never got its material pirated as much.

Thats his whole argument, anyone see the flaw in the argument, because I sure as hell can.

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The Laird
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Re: Gaming predictions for 2015

Post by The Laird » Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:09 pm

PostieDoc wrote:You haven't answered anything so how does this fit in with your theory.

The Amiga was pretty much destroyed by its rampant piracy, devs abandoned it in droves to systems where it was harder to pirate software because it was becoming impossible to make a profit on the computer.

The PC was on its knees between 2006 - 2010, again largely down to rampant piracy. The clever people at Valve helped to pull it back from oblivion (gaming wise) but it looked bleak for a while there.
Pirates are thieves, I am not taking the moral high ground, just stating a fact.
Back in 2010 I met a guy at Jagfest UK who used head up EA in the UK (I seem to remember he was called Ian something) and he told me that the only reason EA stopped making games for the ST was because of the rampant piracy. He said that hacking groups had effectively killed the market for new ST games and made it impossible to make any money, he also said it was far worse on the ST than it was on the Amiga. I also remember him telling me that he had a friend at Gremlin and they had ummed and ahhhed on releasing the ST version of Zool for ages for that very reason and that it had been ready to go pretty much since the Amiga version was done but just sat on it. In the end they released it with a massive wheel thing to get round the pirates but were still worried it would get cracked to get past it and, of course, it eventually was and Gremlin gave up making any more games for the ST too.

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Matt_B
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Re: Gaming predictions for 2015

Post by Matt_B » Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:14 pm

RodimusPrime wrote:That article has been completely laughrd off the face of the planet.

The argumnent goes like this.

A big album from a big band gets pirated before release and loads of people copy it, smaller bands have far loss copies pirated ( obviously becasue they are not as popular )

Then after release the Big band sells more albums, so hey hoo that must mean piracy helped because they sold more albums than the small band that never got its material pirated as much.

Thats his whole argument, anyone see the flaw in the argument, because I sure as hell can.
Er... it goes nothing like that at all. Did you actually read either the article or the paper it links to?

And you appear to have completely missed the part that says "For smaller artists there is no effect of pre-release piracy on sales" which directly contradicts your argument.

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gman72
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Re: Gaming predictions for 2015

Post by gman72 » Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:28 pm

so piracy is good?
“To gain your own voice, you have to forget about having it heard.” —Allen Ginsberg, WD

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RodimusPrime
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Re: Gaming predictions for 2015

Post by RodimusPrime » Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:30 pm

gman72 wrote:so piracy is good?
apparently so.

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Matt_B
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Re: Gaming predictions for 2015

Post by Matt_B » Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:31 pm

RodimusPrime wrote:
gman72 wrote:so piracy is good?
apparently so.
I wouldn't say it's good - as it's never morally excusable to steal someone else's work - but the evidence that it harms sales is extremely thin on the ground and what little in-depth research there is appears to suggest the opposite.

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RodimusPrime
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Re: Gaming predictions for 2015

Post by RodimusPrime » Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:33 pm

Oh the bloody Irony of it all.

PC owners defending Piracy.

Then complaing PC developers making games fo consoles are Holding PCs back.

Totally oblivious to the fact that Rampant piracy is what chased them away to consoles in the first place.

You just could not make this censored up :roll:

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Matt_B
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Re: Gaming predictions for 2015

Post by Matt_B » Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:36 pm

RodimusPrime wrote:Oh the bloody Irony of it all.

PC owners defending Piracy.

Then complaing PC developers making games fo consoles are Holding PCs back.

Totally oblivious to the fact that Rampant piracy is what chased them away to consoles in the first place.

You just could not make this censored up :roll:
I'm not defending piracy. I'm defending the idea that it doesn't harm sales. There's a big difference between the two.

I don't blame piracy for holding back PCs either and think anyone who says so is talking smack. The "death" of the PC as a games format was something made up by the media so far as I'm concerned; all that happened was PC gamers changing their habits from retail to download, desktop to laptop, AAA games to MMOs, etc.
Last edited by Matt_B on Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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RodimusPrime
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Re: Gaming predictions for 2015

Post by RodimusPrime » Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:37 pm

Matt_B wrote:
RodimusPrime wrote:
gman72 wrote:so piracy is good?
apparently so.
I wouldn't say it's good - as it's never morally excusable to steal someone else's work - but the evidence that it harms sales is extremely thin on the ground and what little in-depth research there is appears to suggest the opposite.
I think you will find that there is plenty of research, and it shows piracy does have a negative impact on sales. Not that you need research. Common Bloody sense will tell you that.

That article is a load of crap anyway. This is the age of the internet. anyone can find any half assed article that backs up their own viewpoint nowadays. It means nothing.

I can go and find articles by people with PHDs explaininhg how hitler and the nazis would have made the world a better place. Does not make it true.

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RodimusPrime
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Re: Gaming predictions for 2015

Post by RodimusPrime » Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:39 pm

I find it quite telling and revealing that its 2 Pc gamers that are the ones who want to pretend piracy does not do any harm. very interesting indeed.

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Re: Gaming predictions for 2015

Post by Matt_B » Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:41 pm

OK then. I challenge you to find some article that demonstrates that piracy does harm video games sales.

It needs to be based on proper academic research, not some back of the envelope calculation based on ratios of piracy to sales, or anecdotes from failed developers.

That shouldn't be too hard. Should it?

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RodimusPrime
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Re: Gaming predictions for 2015

Post by RodimusPrime » Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:53 pm

Matt_B wrote:OK then. I challenge you to find some article that demonstrates that piracy does harm video games sales.

It needs to be based on proper academic research, not some back of the envelope calculation based on ratios of piracy to sales, or anecdotes from failed developers.

That shouldn't be too hard. Should it?
Why, any google search can find you that, and for every one I find, there will be one that argues the opposite so where would that get us.

I mean come on, anytime you make something available for free that you normally have to pay for impacts sales. Its basic economic sense.

You go and give away free burgers outside a Burger king and then try and tell them that it does not affect them. Sure a lot of people will take the free stuff who had no intention of buying anything anyway, then there are the people who actually want the Burger king and dont care if they can get the other burgers for free, Just like piracy these are the 2 demographics that dont affect sales ( same as with games )

But then, there are the people who were heading for Burgerking, saw they could get a free burger and though " why pay for something I can get for free " those do affect sales and they is a percantage of sales lost to that scenario. same as games.

Thats a simplified anology, but it does boil down to those 3 scenarios.

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Matt_B
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Re: Gaming predictions for 2015

Post by Matt_B » Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:03 pm

RodimusPrime wrote:
Matt_B wrote:OK then. I challenge you to find some article that demonstrates that piracy does harm video games sales.

It needs to be based on proper academic research, not some back of the envelope calculation based on ratios of piracy to sales, or anecdotes from failed developers.

That shouldn't be too hard. Should it?
Why, any google search can find you that, and for every one I find, there will be one that argues the opposite so where would that get us.

I mean come on, anytime you make something available for free that you normally have to pay for impacts sales. Its basic economic sense.

You go and give away free burgers outside a Burger king and then try and tell them that it does not affect them. Sure a lot of people will take the free stuff who had no intention of buying anything anyway, then there are the people who actually want the Burger king and dont care if they can get the other burgers for free, Just like piracy these are the 2 demographics that dont affect sales ( same as with games )

But then, there are the people who were heading for Burgerking, saw they could get a free burger and though " why pay for something I can get for free " those do affect sales and they is a percantage of sales lost to that scenario. same as games.

Thats a simplified anology, but it does boil down to those 3 scenarios.
Or you might get some people walking past who didn't fancy a burger, but take one of the freebies, like them and start buying from Burger King regularly. That might seem an unlikely scenario, but it's much the same as what happens in supermarkets when they give out free samples of food. Clearly such freebies can sometimes boost sales.

Similarly, when music gets played on the radio it tends to boost sales, despite the wide availability of recording equipment and the general acceptance of its usage.

The problem is that - in the absence of quantitative research - we don't really know how much these effects - and many others - will offset each other. That's why it really does come down to people analysing vast chunks of data as to the habits of pirates to find out what the effects are and we can't just rely upon common sense (whatever that is.) Or the strident cries of the video games industry that piracy is an existential threat, despite the fact that they've grown immensely with it always being there.

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RodimusPrime
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Re: Gaming predictions for 2015

Post by RodimusPrime » Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:09 pm

When I had a CPC I admit I copied cassette tapes. I was a kid and it was wrong but it is what it is.

Now I moved on to an NES, I saved my money and scrimpeed and saved to buy expensive cartridges. Simple fact is I only copied cassettes because they were freely available. If they werent I would have bought games. The kids who would save up for an expensive cart would just as happily done the same if cassettes were not available to copy.

We all know thats true.

I had friends who woulb buy 1-2 playstation games a month, then piracy become easily available. From buying anywhere between 20-30 games a week they basically never bought a new game for 3 years.

That scenario would have been repeated all over, and people still wnat to close their eyes and pretend it never affected anything.

Christ, I know people who sold every DS game they had and bought an r4 card. I guess that means nothing as well.

I know kids who were copying amiga games buy the bucketload, yet were still buying gams for their snes and MS. Are you telling me without piracy they would not have bought any amiga games.

I bet most of us know of many similar scenarios.

And thats firts hand knowledeg, actual results seen first hand.

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RodimusPrime
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Re: Gaming predictions for 2015

Post by RodimusPrime » Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:16 pm

Matt_B wrote:
RodimusPrime wrote:
Matt_B wrote:OK then. I challenge you to find some article that demonstrates that piracy does harm video games sales.

It needs to be based on proper academic research, not some back of the envelope calculation based on ratios of piracy to sales, or anecdotes from failed developers.

That shouldn't be too hard. Should it?
Why, any google search can find you that, and for every one I find, there will be one that argues the opposite so where would that get us.

I mean come on, anytime you make something available for free that you normally have to pay for impacts sales. Its basic economic sense.

You go and give away free burgers outside a Burger king and then try and tell them that it does not affect them. Sure a lot of people will take the free stuff who had no intention of buying anything anyway, then there are the people who actually want the Burger king and dont care if they can get the other burgers for free, Just like piracy these are the 2 demographics that dont affect sales ( same as with games )

But then, there are the people who were heading for Burgerking, saw they could get a free burger and though " why pay for something I can get for free " those do affect sales and they is a percantage of sales lost to that scenario. same as games.

Thats a simplified anology, but it does boil down to those 3 scenarios.
Or you might get some people walking past who didn't fancy a burger, but take one of the freebies, like them and start buying from Burger King regularly. That might seem an unlikely scenario, but it's much the same as what happens in supermarkets when they give out free samples of food. Clearly such freebies can sometimes boost sales.

Similarly, when music gets played on the radio it tends to boost sales, despite the wide availability of recording equipment and the general acceptance of its usage.

The problem is that - in the absence of quantitative research - we don't really know how much these effects - and many others - will offset each other. That's why it really does come down to people analysing vast chunks of data as to the habits of pirates to find out what the effects are and we can't just rely upon common sense (whatever that is.) Or the strident cries of the video games industry that piracy is an existential threat, despite the fact that they've grown immensely with it always being there.
well NO

because 1. if the burgers outside continue to be available for free they have no need to actually buy them.

Those freebie examples from supermarkets are just that, ataster, the equivalent of a game Demo. To get the full thing you need to buy it.

and 2. radio is again a little taster that you have no control over, you can only lieten to it when the radio decides.

Neither of those are comparable to full reatail games and music being pirated.

" we can't rely on common sense " what complete nonsnse. common sense is what makes most of us make rational decsions, not surprised you claim to not know know what it is.

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