Coronavirus

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merman
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by merman » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:45 am

greenberet79 wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:58 pm
I hit post, but hadn't finished :roll:

Looks like some places (Belgium, Greece, Spain) cases are rising and lockdown measures are coming back in.

We're certainly a long way from what I consider dark days in April and May when the daily death figure was floating around the 1000 mark for a few weeks.

I thought we were heading for the light at the end of the tunnel. But maybe not...
But we should still be cautious, with over a hundred deaths a day and more than a thousand new cases a week.
The first wave hasn't finished yet.

I am supposed to stop shielding on the 1st of August but I will rarely be going out.
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pratty
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by pratty » Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:21 am

greenberet79 wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:58 pm
I hit post, but hadn't finished :roll:

Looks like some places (Belgium, Greece, Spain) cases are rising and lockdown measures are coming back in.

We're certainly a long way from what I consider dark days in April and May when the daily death figure was floating around the 1000 mark for a few weeks.

I thought we were heading for the light at the end of the tunnel. But maybe not...
The number of cases was always bound to increase once we increased testing, I'm not any more alarmed. And since deaths have apparently been misattributed to Covid, I'm not sure I'd trust any statistics at this point.
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Matt_B
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Matt_B » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:02 pm

No, more tests doesn't automatically mean more cases. For instance, Australia tested a lot - far more than most countries in Europe or the Americas - back in February and early March, but still topped out at only around 7000 cases until very recently when the second wave started here. Indeed, I'd think that it helped a lot, as the people who were testing positive could receive appropriate treatment, be isolated from the rest of the population and be contact traced.

An increase in testing is only going to reveal more cases when they actually exist in the population at large. This happened in the UK and Spain during late March and April. However, despite no change in the amount of tests, the numbers of new cases and deaths started to decline as the effect of the lockdown served to reduce the spread so, over time it as actually resulted in less deaths. I'd note that there's been no underlying changes to the amount of tests that corresponds with the current second wave in Spain either, so it's almost certainly the case that there are now a lot more actual cases for the reasons discussed earlier.

That there have been some misattributed deaths I don't doubt. When hundreds of millions of tests are being done around the world, there are bound to be a lot of false positives after all. Still, this cuts both ways and there will almost certainly have been many people who've died of it without ever having been tested. This discrepancy between confirmed COVID deaths and the number of excess deaths recorded by the ONS has been noted, and suggests that a lot of people died early without being officially recorded as a COVID death. Statistics are always prone to manipulation, but I think I'll trust these guys over some random conspiracy theorists on social media:

https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2020/07/07/coro ... ppen-next/

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by merman » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:06 am

pratty wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:21 am
greenberet79 wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:58 pm
I hit post, but hadn't finished :roll:

Looks like some places (Belgium, Greece, Spain) cases are rising and lockdown measures are coming back in.

We're certainly a long way from what I consider dark days in April and May when the daily death figure was floating around the 1000 mark for a few weeks.

I thought we were heading for the light at the end of the tunnel. But maybe not...
The number of cases was always bound to increase once we increased testing, I'm not any more alarmed. And since deaths have apparently been misattributed to Covid, I'm not sure I'd trust any statistics at this point.
Sigh...
Public Health England's review shows that there will be minimal changes in the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19, despite pressure from the Health Secretary to revise the figures down.

If a patient gets COVID and it damages their lungs, any death from breathing related problems should be recorded as COVID-related.

And increasingly we are seeing patients experiencing long-term symptoms and complications.

It's not over yet. Wear a mask.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by DPrinny » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:41 am

merman wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:06 am

It's not over yet. Wear a mask.
If only people in stores would.

Started a new thing, if im near someone without a mask on, I do a loud fake sneeze.
If they say owt I usually respond with "Sorry im allergic to morons"

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Sephiroth81
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Sephiroth81 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:59 am

I think many people are downplaying Covid19 in this country, as the (first wave) peak is over, and instead of a 1000+ folks dead a day, its now around a 100, and often into double digits (especially over weekends when reporting is lower, and the rolling daily average may indeed be lower). Meanwhile new daily infections hasn't really dipped below 500.

But 50/75/100 deaths a day in a country of 65m? Meh, doesn't seem that many (I don't know whether a "facetious warning" alert is necessary)....but when you consider in "normal" times, around 1,600 die every day from ALL causes, then 100 doesn't seem an insignificant portion. 20 die every day of direct alcohol related deaths (not including boozy accidents) just to give some sense of perspective and I always consider alcohol to be a bit of a havoc to our health (despite being a drinker myself).

Its not over yet, wear a mask etc, although I'm not sure Pratty was actually dismissing the pandemic or the risks....just talking out loud and not getting more anxious about the situation.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by pratty » Wed Jul 29, 2020 12:53 pm

merman wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:06 am
pratty wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:21 am
The number of cases was always bound to increase once we increased testing, I'm not any more alarmed. And since deaths have apparently been misattributed to Covid, I'm not sure I'd trust any statistics at this point.
Sigh...
Public Health England's review shows that there will be minimal changes in the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19, despite pressure from the Health Secretary to revise the figures down.

If a patient gets COVID and it damages their lungs, any death from breathing related problems should be recorded as COVID-related.

And increasingly we are seeing patients experiencing long-term symptoms and complications.

It's not over yet. Wear a mask.
All I'm saying is I'm no more worried than when we all may have had it without knowing, and rather than placing my faith in the latest stats from who/whatever and acting accordingly, I'll continue to take responsibility for my own health as I always have. Perhaps I'm not cowering as I ought to be, maybe I'm just a glass half full kind of guy, and that deserves a condecending sigh. Maybe you are just more informed and intelligent than I am, Merman. I'm sorry for that.
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merman
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by merman » Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:24 am

pratty wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 12:53 pm

All I'm saying is I'm no more worried than when we all may have had it without knowing, and rather than placing my faith in the latest stats from who/whatever and acting accordingly, I'll continue to take responsibility for my own health as I always have. Perhaps I'm not cowering as I ought to be, maybe I'm just a glass half full kind of guy, and that deserves a condecending sigh. Maybe you are just more informed and intelligent than I am, Merman. I'm sorry for that.
I was never insulting or making any comment on your intelligence. My sigh was because of the narrative that the number of deaths has been overestimated, as it makes people feel safer.

Latest estimates say between 5-7% of the population have had it.
There are two problems that causes.

1. It means lockdown has not been as effective as it could have been. There must have been a lot of breaches and people ignoring the rules.
2. There is no way to get from there to the 75%+ immunity we need to go back to "normal".

So far from paying people to eat in restaurants and get back to the office, we should be looking at more stringent measures to prevent outbreaks. And that includes wearing a mask.
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Sephiroth81
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Sephiroth81 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:28 am

Do we even know for certain that having coronavirus antibodies will provide that much protection? (of getting it again)

ulrich7ad
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ulrich7ad » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:54 am

Sephiroth81 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:28 am
Do we even know for certain that having coronavirus antibodies will provide that much protection? (of getting it again)
A nurse friend of mine has had it twice. Now it could be the one infection that hadn't fully disappeared before being tested again but its recorded as twice. As have most of the other nurses on the covid ward.

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Sephiroth81
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Sephiroth81 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:12 pm

ulrich7ad wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:54 am
Sephiroth81 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:28 am
Do we even know for certain that having coronavirus antibodies will provide that much protection? (of getting it again)
A nurse friend of mine has had it twice. Now it could be the one infection that hadn't fully disappeared before being tested again but its recorded as twice. As have most of the other nurses on the covid ward.
Ah i see. I heard that Brazilian President (and all-round far right tw*t with all the trimmings that go with RW demagogues) Jair Bolsonaro has tested positive 3 times! But that was presumably the same original infection.

Does make you wonder if there are going to be multiple strains of this, which will mean any natural immunity for this won't be straightforward. The notion that we should be relieved that we already had COVID19 seems massively premature, even though there are many who seem certain it would be beneficial to have already had the virus. Perhaps they are right, but I do wonder what are the long term consequences to having it in the first place...

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DPrinny
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by DPrinny » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:16 pm

They announce Greater Manchester has to go on lock-down 3 hours before we have to do so.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by merman » Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:58 am

DPrinny wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:16 pm
They announce Greater Manchester has to go on lock-down 3 hours before we have to do so.
Announced on Twiiter, before they had informed the local health authorities. Incompetence at the heart of Government.
Sephiroth81 wrote:Do we even know for certain that having coronavirus antibodies will provide that much protection? (of getting it again)
The evidence for coronaviruses in general says immunity fades after about six months.
So far for COVID-19 it looks like immunity can last 2-3 months.
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DPrinny
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by DPrinny » Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:17 pm

merman wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:58 am
DPrinny wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:16 pm
They announce Greater Manchester has to go on lock-down 3 hours before we have to do so.
Announced on Twiiter, before they had informed the local health authorities. Incompetence at the heart of Government.
But we are allowed to go to places like pubs, cafes, gyms, but not talk mix with anyone.

Yeah, thats going to be quite hard, harder than if we go to visit them.

We need a new word for them as Incompetence is no longer appropriate.
Ultra-incompetent?

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by MattySlug » Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:53 am

Here in Victoria, Australia we have just started Stage 4 Restrictions, all shops except Supermarkets & Grocerys shut.
Plus Curfew from 8PM-5AM.
This will last a minimum of 6 Weeks.

I was hoping tomorrow to go buy some Playmobil from a local POP Vinyl Shop but I will now have to order them online.

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