NEW - EU in or out? June 23rd (with POLL)

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STAY IN OR LEAVE THE EU?

Poll ended at Sun Jun 19, 2016 4:01 pm

STAY IN THE EU
29
46%
LEAVE THE EU
27
43%
NOT DECIDED
5
8%
DON'T CARE
2
3%
 
Total votes: 63

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Treguard
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Re: NEW - EU in or out? June 23rd (with POLL)

Post by Treguard » Tue Jun 14, 2016 11:22 am

Rayne wrote:Markets hate uncertainty, once the vote is over they'll see a recovery.
I'd hope so, but all the signs are an out vote would in the short term force it even lower. In the meantime, food and fuel prices will rise and we'll all be having to pay more for less.

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Re: NEW - EU in or out? June 23rd (with POLL)

Post by Rayne » Tue Jun 14, 2016 11:34 am

Treguard wrote:
Rayne wrote:Markets hate uncertainty, once the vote is over they'll see a recovery.
I'd hope so, but all the signs are an out vote would in the short term force it even lower. In the meantime, food and fuel prices will rise and we'll all be having to pay more for less.
A very fair concern but one that I'm personally willing to pay. I'd rather short-term price hikes and long-term benefits.
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Re: NEW - EU in or out? June 23rd (with POLL)

Post by Matt_B » Tue Jun 14, 2016 8:59 pm

Rayne wrote:
Treguard wrote:
Rayne wrote:Markets hate uncertainty, once the vote is over they'll see a recovery.
I'd hope so, but all the signs are an out vote would in the short term force it even lower. In the meantime, food and fuel prices will rise and we'll all be having to pay more for less.
A very fair concern but one that I'm personally willing to pay. I'd rather short-term price hikes and long-term benefits.
Remind us what those long-term benefits are again. :)

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The Beans
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Re: NEW - EU in or out? June 23rd (with POLL)

Post by The Beans » Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:00 am

thingonaspring wrote:A majority of polls in the past two weeks have a lead for leave. Both poll of polls easily available (ft and whatukthinks) show leave ahead. Yougov found a 7 point lead in poll last night. Bookmakers odds on brexit now stand at roughly 40%, double the position 3 weeks ago. Sterling has tanked, sterling 1 month volatility is close to its highest on record (which was during the financial crisis), equities fell sharply yesterday and uk gilt yields dropped. The Sun front page today urges voters to choose leave.
There's a slight backlash underway and it's mostly down to the perception that the EU are a bunch of bullies more interested in punishing the UK if they leave than making europe "work" overall if there's an exit. The stuff coming out of germany this week has been ill-judged imo. I know the EU leaders are getting a bit panicky but they really don't understand the general mentality of this country at all, the more they threaten and doom-monger the more we'll tell them to get stuffed. They need to just STFU, keep their fingers crossed and hope Cameron's Remain camp have done enough to win the vote.

One thing's for sure, even a Remain win isn't going to make any of this go away now judging by the polls. This referendum has exposed some pretty deep divides.
If it's slower than me, dumber than me and it tastes good ... tough titty.

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Re: NEW - EU in or out? June 23rd (with POLL)

Post by pratty » Wed Jun 15, 2016 11:52 am

Matt_B wrote:Remind us what those long-term benefits are again. :)
Here's a few:

Increased self determination and independance, reduced international hegemony.
The ability to taylor what were EU laws and regulations specifically to the British people.
All the guidelines and examples of the EU, without the compulsion.
Reduced immigration - reduced competition for jobs, reduced competiton for housing, reduced cultural problems.
Reduced government - reduced waste, red tape and hopefully legislation.
Either lower taxes (unlikely), or more UK tax money spent on the UK.
Small businesses better positioned to compete with larger businesses that have the captial to follow EU regulations.
The freedom to pursue our own trade deals on our terms.
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Treguard
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Re: NEW - EU in or out? June 23rd (with POLL)

Post by Treguard » Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:12 pm

pratty wrote:
Matt_B wrote:Remind us what those long-term benefits are again. :)
Here's a few:

Increased self determination and independance, reduced international hegemony.
The ability to taylor what were EU laws and regulations specifically to the British people.
All the guidelines and examples of the EU, without the compulsion.
Reduced immigration - reduced competition for jobs, reduced competiton for housing, reduced cultural problems.
Reduced government - reduced waste, red tape and hopefully legislation.
Either lower taxes (unlikely), or more UK tax money spent on the UK.
Small businesses better positioned to compete with larger businesses that have the captial to follow EU regulations.
The freedom to pursue our own trade deals on our terms.
Except you can't have access to the Common market without accepting all the EU regulations. Norway and Switzerland are proof of that. There would have to actually be a massive increase in legislation to make up for the areas of European law now lacking. More UK tax money spent in the UK, more than likely propping up the farmers who've had 50% of their income cut and can't find buyers for their produce. Operating outside of the largest bilateral trade deal between two economic blocks (TTIP) ever produced, and having to get people to show an interest in dealing with us when frankly we don't produce anything anyone really needs. Reduced legal immigration, leading to de facto increased illegal migration and the security nightmare that is managing it all. Reduced protection for british workers from unfair employment practices. And that's just for starters.

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Re: NEW - EU in or out? June 23rd (with POLL)

Post by Cripper2 » Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:01 pm

Treguard wrote:
pratty wrote:
Matt_B wrote:Remind us what those long-term benefits are again. :)
Here's a few:

Increased self determination and independance, reduced international hegemony.
The ability to taylor what were EU laws and regulations specifically to the British people.
All the guidelines and examples of the EU, without the compulsion.
Reduced immigration - reduced competition for jobs, reduced competiton for housing, reduced cultural problems.
Reduced government - reduced waste, red tape and hopefully legislation.
Either lower taxes (unlikely), or more UK tax money spent on the UK.
Small businesses better positioned to compete with larger businesses that have the captial to follow EU regulations.
The freedom to pursue our own trade deals on our terms.
Except you can't have access to the Common market without accepting all the EU regulations. Norway and Switzerland are proof of that. There would have to actually be a massive increase in legislation to make up for the areas of European law now lacking. More UK tax money spent in the UK, more than likely propping up the farmers who've had 50% of their income cut and can't find buyers for their produce. Operating outside of the largest bilateral trade deal between two economic blocks (TTIP) ever produced, and having to get people to show an interest in dealing with us when frankly we don't produce anything anyone really needs. Reduced legal immigration, leading to de facto increased illegal migration and the security nightmare that is managing it all. Reduced protection for british workers from unfair employment practices. And that's just for starters.
You don't have to be a member of the EU to trade with it. The last time I looked China was not a member and nearly everything is made in China.

If the EU tried to make an independent UK adopt all their legislation we can do the same to them and the UK has a 50bn trade deficit with the EU. Norway has had to adopt 7% of the EU legislation that the Uk currently adopts in order to trade with the EU

The EU subsidies are for agricultural land owners not per se for farmers. They have nothing to do with food production. People like Prince Charles and the Duke of Northumberland do very well from them. They can claim them or they prop up the rental value of agricultural land. THey need the money to repair their castles and invest in luxury German cars

Britain already has better protection from unfair employment practices than the EU minimum. If people want better employment protection they can vote Labour at the next general election.

The ordinary semi skilled worker will see increased wages if we leave the EU as employers will no longer be able to fill low paid jobs with people from E Europe

If we leave the EU. Fingers crossed it will be an opportunity to get rid of Scotland


There are too many vested interests for the UK to be allowed to leave the EU. If we vote to leave there will be another referendum in a year so they can get the right result and in the end it wont matter as the Eurozone is headed for economic collapse

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Re: NEW - EU in or out? June 23rd (with POLL)

Post by Negative Creep » Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:08 pm

Seeing Geldoff on the news is making me more likely to vote leave. Cannot stand champagne socialists like him stepping out from their mansion to tell us how awful it is to be poor.
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Re: NEW - EU in or out? June 23rd (with POLL)

Post by Matt_B » Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:17 pm

Increased self determination and independance, reduced international hegemony. - Not really. The European Commision can only pass laws that the member states agree upon.
The ability to taylor what were EU laws and regulations specifically to the British people. - It's not that hard for the UK to do this. You can point at a long list of opt-outs.
All the guidelines and examples of the EU, without the compulsion. - What use are laws if they're not enforced?
Reduced immigration - reduced competition for jobs, reduced competiton for housing, reduced cultural problems. - On the other hand, there'd be a drastically reduced pool of skilled workers available to UK companies. It cuts both ways. Also, as is repeatedly pointed out, staying in the single market but opting out of freedom of movement isn't really an option.
Reduced government - reduced waste, red tape and hopefully legislation. - Not really, as the UK government would have to draft a lot of extra legislation itself to cover the gaps.
Either lower taxes (unlikely), or more UK tax money spent on the UK. - To the tune of about £2 per person per day, I suppose so.
Small businesses better positioned to compete with larger businesses that have the captial to follow EU regulations. - Now that I'd agree upon. Still, it's not much of a clincher in itself, and staying in the EU does help a lot of UK businesses compete internationally.
The freedom to pursue our own trade deals on our terms. - Yeah, but with a heck of a lot less bargaining power. You should see the way Australia regularly gets shafted in one-sided trade deals first.

For me, the big question if the UK votes leave is whether I apply for French or Dutch citizenship. :)

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Re: NEW - EU in or out? June 23rd (with POLL)

Post by pratty » Wed Jun 15, 2016 11:58 pm

The point is the opt outs are the exceptions (which have to be negotiated with the EU, hence a lack of independence) the majority of EU regulations are not opted out of resulting in increased the hegemony, which is cultural as well as political. Hegemony in certain instances isn't always a bad thing, but outside of the EU it totally up to us and voluntary as to how much in common we share with our EU neighbours.

The advantage of unforced EU rules to the UK is we don't have to follow them if we don't want to, it is as simple as that, we can watch the rest of the EU, see what works and what doesn't, follow it's lead with our own similar regulation when it suits us and ignore it when it doesn't. For example the EU offers all these worker protections and rights, the implication of the remainers is that only the EU can provide this, when there is no reason the UK can't choose to have these very same rules if it wanted to, enforcing them itself through it's own legislation. This may require a more politically conscious and active population to lobby their politicians to obey their will and make this happen, a more politically conscious and active population is a positive.

Reduced EU immigration may require a resulting crackdown on illegal immigration, but we should be doing this already, and we have the right to do this where as we have less right to reduce legal EU immigration by it's nature.
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Re: NEW - EU in or out? June 23rd (with POLL)

Post by Matt_B » Thu Jun 16, 2016 12:24 am

But the point is that by negotiating opt-outs the UK has effectively being picking and choosing which EU rules to adopt, so leaving the EU isn't strictly necessary if that's all that's wanted. All this talk of the EU being able to create laws that UK governments don't want is completely unsubstantiated.

That's obviously not stopped politicians from blaming the EU for laws that they wanted but prove to be unpopular with the British public. However, that's just smoke-screening; the laws apply to the UK because the government wanted them and they'd still probably want them whether the UK was in the EU or not.

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Re: NEW - EU in or out? June 23rd (with POLL)

Post by pratty » Thu Jun 16, 2016 11:47 am

You're overlooking the principle, I want the UK governed by what the British people want or don't want, not by what the EU permits by granting conditional and selective opt outs. For example we have to ask the EU if it's ok that we don't allow EU immigrants immediate accesss to UK benefits. And in general what Cameron got from his recent EU deal was a watered down compromise compared to his original pledge, such is the nature of negotiation, that's not the UK doing what it wants. That any country has to seek the approval of an organisation outside itself to decide who it lets in and how it distributes state resources is competely wrong to me.
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Re: NEW - EU in or out? June 23rd (with POLL)

Post by merman » Thu Jun 16, 2016 12:26 pm

Negative Creep wrote:Seeing Geldoff on the news is making me more likely to vote leave. Cannot stand champagne socialists like him stepping out from their mansion to tell us how awful it is to be poor.
And seeing Farage stand in front of a racist poster (Photoshopped to remove white faces) is even more reason to vote Remain.
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Treguard
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Re: NEW - EU in or out? June 23rd (with POLL)

Post by Treguard » Thu Jun 16, 2016 1:54 pm

Negative Creep wrote:Seeing Geldoff on the news is making me more likely to vote leave. Cannot stand champagne socialists like him stepping out from their mansion to tell us how awful it is to be poor.
Geldof is as far removed from a 'champagne socialist' as it's possible to be- the blokes been actively campaigning for charity since the early 80's, before he made any money, and he still does. Plus he's not in the EU's pocket- he appeared in a commercial against going in to the Euro. He just successfully called Farage out on his hypocrisy and it was very funny to watch.

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Treguard
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Re: NEW - EU in or out? June 23rd (with POLL)

Post by Treguard » Thu Jun 16, 2016 2:05 pm

Cripper2 wrote:
Treguard wrote:
pratty wrote:
Except you can't have access to the Common market without accepting all the EU regulations. Norway and Switzerland are proof of that. There would have to actually be a massive increase in legislation to make up for the areas of European law now lacking. More UK tax money spent in the UK, more than likely propping up the farmers who've had 50% of their income cut and can't find buyers for their produce. Operating outside of the largest bilateral trade deal between two economic blocks (TTIP) ever produced, and having to get people to show an interest in dealing with us when frankly we don't produce anything anyone really needs. Reduced legal immigration, leading to de facto increased illegal migration and the security nightmare that is managing it all. Reduced protection for british workers from unfair employment practices. And that's just for starters.
You don't have to be a member of the EU to trade with it. The last time I looked China was not a member and nearly everything is made in China.

If the EU tried to make an independent UK adopt all their legislation we can do the same to them and the UK has a 50bn trade deficit with the EU. Norway has had to adopt 7% of the EU legislation that the Uk currently adopts in order to trade with the EU

The EU subsidies are for agricultural land owners not per se for farmers. They have nothing to do with food production. People like Prince Charles and the Duke of Northumberland do very well from them. They can claim them or they prop up the rental value of agricultural land. THey need the money to repair their castles and invest in luxury German cars

Britain already has better protection from unfair employment practices than the EU minimum. If people want better employment protection they can vote Labour at the next general election.

The ordinary semi skilled worker will see increased wages if we leave the EU as employers will no longer be able to fill low paid jobs with people from E Europe

If we leave the EU. Fingers crossed it will be an opportunity to get rid of Scotland


There are too many vested interests for the UK to be allowed to leave the EU. If we vote to leave there will be another referendum in a year so they can get the right result and in the end it wont matter as the Eurozone is headed for economic collapse
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... gian-model

Former Norweigan foreign minister says it's more like 75% of EU legislation. And yes you can trade with the EU if you're not part of it, bit if you want in to the common market you have to abide by EU rules. And yes the rules on the farm subsidies have recently changed- that was a UK initiative to stop people growing crops simply for the subsidy they attract and damaging the markets. It was taken up by the EU and passed in to legislation.

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